Having spent the morning at the London offices of Deloitte. (notice the branded full stop in green) for the launch of the annual TMT Predictions 2009, it is now time to spend the evening excavating the detail of the report with a fine trowel and brush. Present (and speaking) at the eighth year, in which Deloitte hazarded a guess as to what will be the trends in Technology, Media and Telecommunictions, were the following:
- Peter O’Donoghue – Deloitte Partner, TMT Predictions Sponsor
- Paul Lee – Deloitte Director
- Raymond Snoddy – Media Journalist (panel chair)
- Carolyn Fairbairn – ITV
- Matt Brittin – Google
[Second part of the panel debate available at the end]
[A Wordle from the central words in Deloitte's TMT Predictions 2009]
Media Predictions
1. Putting print out of peril may require stopping the presses
The print industry really is facing a monster of a challenge: the concurrent devaluation of their means of production and their networks for distribution, at the behest of the impatient online consumer. Deloitte says:
“Print media companies need to accelerate steps to re-establish profitable business models again in 2009. The potentially parlous state of the global economy is likely to make change especially pressing.”
Single measures, like reducing the staff numbers “may not alone deliver salvation”, says Deloitte. See Paper Cuts for up-to-date US numbers on job losses. Where is the equivalent initiative in the UK?.
Quality of Prediction: Self-fulfilling.
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2. Television rediscovers its self-belief
Deloitte’s estimate that television viewing figures will rise by 30 minutes per viewer in 2009. On the counter-cyclical character of television, the report says:
“Television may offer a refuge from everyday challenges, in a similar way that the movies offered a temporary sanctuary from the Great Depression”
What to expect? Well, product placement on TV if the advertising revenues get bad enough to sway local policy makers. Also, new methods of measuring ROI (Return on Investment) for marketeers.
Quality of Prediction: On the Money.
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3. 3D becomes an obligation, not an option, at the movies
Cyclical history is only pop when we’re down; this view at least allows for us to get back on top. And when there again, the linear view’s reign continues. Thus, here is another one of Deloitte’s hark-backs to the Great Depression:
“In 2009, the cinema is likely to need a ‘must-have’ factor that convinces audiences to continue to visit. The answer to that need might well be 3D”
The argument that the industry can only afford to invest in one of HD or 3D, and that the latter will have a greater impact on the consumer, makes sense. But does anyone really believe that the Cinderella of cinematic technology has come to the end of her sleep? As Deloitte’s report readily admits, the first 3D film is older than the Great Depression itself.
Quality of Prediction: Seeing is Believing.
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4. The growing cost of free online content
Deloitte believes that the success of UGC (User-generated content) companies will become a liability in 2009. ‘Right. Enough users. Now, where’s that profit?’ The Warholian prediction says:
“The rising cost of online content may mean that the public’s opportunity for 15 minutes of online fame may be receding fast.”
YouTube has certainly made its way into our homes. It has become the “friend” that is at all the parties, and often at our centre of attention.
Quality of Prediction: Get your videos up!
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5. The rising stars take on the the megastars
This prediction is very interesting. It assumes that less money in the arts will be enabling for the areas that are neglected in more prosperous times. Quoting from Deloitte’s argument:
“As consumers focus on value, the ‘premium’ paid for the biggest stars, seen in the best locations, may well erode. [...] Those not able or willing to pay premium prices may divert their interest in lesser known talent, from theater currently on the fringes, to upcoming bands.”
In a month that sees almost half of the shows on Broadway close and threats of cuts to Arts Council funding, this prediction is also somewhat naïve.
Quality of Prediction: Poor (There is no fringe on nothing!).
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6. The dawn of WiFi radio
A Venn diagram with three intersecting sets (geography, time, continuity) is the graphic part of what I think is a NULL argument. Please note the operative word in italics (my):
“[In] 2009, Internet radio, particularly in the form of WiFi-based, portable sets, could take off, in terms of audience and revenues”
Every radio listener knows that what Deloitte calls a ‘typical household radio set’ (you know, the one in the kitchen) really only needs one button: ON/OFF.
Quality of Prediction: On the wrong side of possible/necessary.
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7. Mobile advertising finds its meaning
This one is a little confusing, not least because I don’t think Deloitte believes their own prediction:
“[In] a global advertising environment characterized by double-digit decreases, mobile advertising may be one of the few growth areas in 2009.”
Mocking the last five years’ believers in ‘the next big thing’, Deloitte expects to become converts in 2009. Anyway, by their own account, should the prediction come true, the most sensitive seismic instruments wouldn’t register it.
Quality of Prediction: Insignificant (hopefully).
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8. The markets get anti-social with social networks
Playtime is over according to Deloitte’s prediction on social networks:
“[A] fundamentally harsher financial outlook in 2009 and beyond, combined with an expected contraction in online advertising, is likely to make the managers of social networks and their investors pause for thought. The likely response is that social networks will focus more on monetizing their subscriber bases, than maximizing their size”
With the poor performance of click and purchase rates on social networks (e.g. Facebook) compared with the Web in general, Deloitte may well have a return on this prediction.
Quality of Prediction: Good.
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9. Reinventing mobile television
After so many positive predictions, along comes a lone negative one. Mobile television won’t happen, according to Deloitte:
“In 2009, it is five times more likely that mobile television services will be closed than launched.”
With a sideways glance to the Far East and the lack of success for mobile television there, their conclusion is that television is some way off being perfectly portable in the form of a mobile phone.
Quality of Prediction: Good.
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10. The rise of malvertising and its threat to brands
What a hideous Portmanteau: ‘Malvertising (“malicious advertising”)’. It is so ugly, there is even no Wikipedia entry for the term. Deloitte’s prediction says:
“During 2009, malvertising may infect hundreds of reputable sites and be seen by millions of users, many of whose computers are likely to end up infected.”
I wish the predicition instead simply said: “In 2009, the threat to your language will be greater than ever. Refuse to say ‘malvertising’!”
Quality of Prediction: Good (but I refuse to Tag ‘malvertising’).
Further Content
- Full text of TMT Predictions 2009 – Media (PDF/HTML)
- Part II (10′21): ITV’s Carolyn Fairbairn speaks (mp3)
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