Having spent the morning at the London offices of Deloitte. (notice the branded full stop in green) for the launch of the annual TMT Predictions 2009, it is now time to spend the evening excavating the detail of the report with a fine trowel and brush. Present (and speaking) at the eighth year, in which Deloitte hazarded a guess as to what will be the trends in Technology, Media and Telecommunictions, were the following:
- Peter O’Donoghue – Deloitte Partner, TMT Predictions Sponsor
- Paul Lee – Deloitte Director
- Raymond Snoddy – Media Journalist (panel chair)
- Carolyn Fairbairn – ITV
- Matt Brittin – Google
[First part of the panel debate available at the end]
[A Wordle from the central words in Deloitte's TMT Predictions 2009]
Technology Predictions
1. Making every electron count: the rise of the SmartGrid
The SmartGrid was the star of the show this morning. It was the technology with the headline figure that everyone still remembers (and, for Snoddy, perfect dinner conversation candy). The technology promises to remove half of the inefficiency of the electricity grid by a nifty use of computer intelligence. Quoting from the report:
“Broadly speaking, SmartGrid companies add computer intelligence and networking to what is otherwise a ‘dumb’ electrical network.”
In numbers, this means an improvement of efficiency from a legacy of 33% to an impressive 60%.
Quality of Prediction: Average (as this must be obvious for the industry).
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2. Gadgets for free!* (*subject to contract)
Bundling TVs with subscriptions??? Music equipment with music?? High-end computers with technical support etc.? Quoting from the report again:
“Bundling products and services together may prove essential in 2009 to stimulate an otherwise nervous, stalled market.”
Sorry, I don’t get it. I think the consequence of a “nervous, stalled market” will be the opposite. The consumer is growing up: Less money – more sense. Technology has been bundled for too long. The ear to the ground finally hears terms like “open source” and “choice”.
Quality of Prediction: Poor.
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3. Disrupting the PC: the rise of the netbook
Having brought my new Acer Aspire One to the Deloitte. office this morning, this was an edifying prediction.
“The appeal of netbooks has been categorized as making “great second computers for normal people, third computers for techies and first computers for children”"
Beyond my vanity (that of feeling trendy), and using only my ex-colleagues reaction when I pulled out my netbook over a coffee, Deloitte.’s prediction is sound. They loved it; I could see the immediate attraction (read: jealousy) in their eyes.
Quality of Prediction: Good (although the Christmas sales were a strong indicator).
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4. Moore’s Law and risk
Talk about contrived language (!):
“[Portable digital data storage devices can hold more and more data, yet] at the same time, confidential files, such as an individual’s social security number, occupy the same paltry number of bytes as 10 years ago. It is therefore becoming ever easier for massive volumes of sensitive data to be lost or stolen.”
The logic is…ahem…simply not there. Regardless of the, perhaps, clumsy wording, invoking Moore’s Law to describe the increasing risk of loss of sensitive data (or is it the risk of loss of a greater amount of sensitive data) in the work place seems a bit odd. It is epistemological name-dropping: “I know about Moore. I’m a geek like you. You must listen to me.”
Quality of Prediction: Linear.
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5. The common sense of lean and green IT
In the days when a double Google search is said to equal the boiling of a kettle in terms of energy consumption, this Deloitte. prediction will make a difference:
“Energy consumption for IT should be linked to the overall approach to energy for a company. At present IT budgets are not linked to facilities management bills. Therefore, the IT budget is not currently affected by its power consumption”
When you next turn off your computer – it better be tonight! – look for the fan and clean out the fluff so that it doesn’t have to breathe like a pack-a-day smoker any more. And if you are the manager of a data centre, here is a test: what does the acronym PUE stand for? (No hyperlink here, I’m afraid)
Quality of Prediction: Superb.
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6. Downsizing the digital attic
This seems like the dud prediction of the technology section; the one that makes it ten (but let’s hide it in the middle so it is not too obvious).
“The imperative for companies to cut costs is likely to include attempts to control the escalation of storage costs.”
It feels a little like being told as a teenager to tidy your room, or “otherwise”….nothing will happen.
Quality of Prediction: Commonsensical.
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7. Generic becomes the ‘it’ brand
Matt Britten asked this morning: “How many of you have better [software] applications in your office than at home?” Not a single hand went up in the entire conference room. Judging by Matt’s straw poll, this is not a bad prediction by Deloitte.:
“In 2009, companies and consumers may actively seek out unbranded or relatively unknown technology brands on the basis that they are good enough and, more importantly, significantly cheaper.”
This is the Stonewall riots (not quite) in software terms. The time of sheepish looking employees smuggling in life-saving applications into the office is over. Open source is out of the closet!
Quality of Prediction: Very Good.
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8. The digital ambulance chaser gets supercharged
For a technology prediction, this is Deloitte.’s most tenuous one:
“In 2009, there may be hundreds of class action suits – claims of billions of dollars for copyright abuse – for media, software and other forms of content.”
Paul Lee in his overview this morning described ‘technology’ as ’solutions’. With any stretch of the imagination I cannot see how the legal profession finding the digital rights revenue stream increasingly important is a ’solution’. Rather, it is a warning to innovative minds and a consequence of their creativity.
Quality of Prediction: Not applicable.
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9. Social networks in the enterprise: Facebook for the Fortune 500
This is the one technology prediction that I really don’t understand:
“It looks as though 2009 is likely to be the breakout year for social networks in the enterprise. “
Deloitte.’s report says “Enterprise Social Networking (ESN) goes well beyond the consumer experience of social networking” but it doesn’t exactly qualify it. I am only left with questions. Will most companies in 2009 set up a Ning social network per department? Have the duties of citizens been extended to updating their community’s Wikipedia entry? Is there an expectation that every Minister makes himself available on Twitter?
Quality of Prediction: Bandwagon-esque.
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10. Sinners become saints
This is by far the most far-fetched prediction by Deloitte. this year:
“In 2009 it may even be considered virtuous to create dishes comprising GM ingredients, packaged in plastic, in kitchens powered by nuclear fuel.”
This year it is 30 years since James Lovelock (“father” of the Gaia hypothesis) published his book that made us appreciate that Earth exhibits behaviour like a living organism. What is less known is that “Mr Green” has for decades believed nuclear power to be our only ‘real’ option for a sufficient source of energy. And on the acceptance of GM, I am reminded of what Geoff Hoon said about the mothers of Iraqi children killed by cluster bombs in the ongoing war; that they would “one day” thank Britain for their use.
Quality of Prediction: Wildly wishful.
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